The Prospect of Vladimir Putin's Visit to North Korea and Their Relations

Hyun Seung-soo

Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU)

Since the eruption of the Ukraine War, its reverberations have deeply affected the Korean Peninsula. South Korea's strong condemnation of Russia's disregard for international law in neighboring countries' invasions led to active participation in sanctions against Russia. In response, Russia labeled South Korea as unfriendly, leading to a deterioration in bilateral relations. In a contrasting turn, North Korea and Russia developed an unusually close relationship. After the unsuccessful 2019 DPRK-USA Hanoi Summit with Former President Donald Trump, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sought solace in Russia, a former ally. As Russia encountered challenges in the aftermath of the Ukraine War, North Korea offered its assistance.

At the United Nations, North Korea opposed resolutions condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. When Russia declared the merger of four annexed territories from Ukraine, North Korea was the first to approve it. Kim Yo-jong, a senior official of the Workers' Party of Korea, expressed unwavering support for Russia, likening their relationship to a pledge of allegiance. This mutual stance rapidly strengthened ties between Russia and North Korea.

In August 2023, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu visited North Korea, attending the Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War military parade. During a weapons exhibition in Pyongyang, Kim Jong-un personally showcased North Korea's missiles and drones to Minister Shoigu. Less than a month later, in September, the second meeting between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un took place at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia.

In contrast to the inconclusive 2019 North Korea-Russia summit, this meeting marked the beginning of a new era in their relations. Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un expressed their intent to deepen ties across various fields, including politics, economics, society, and culture. Consequently, high-level exchanges surged between the two countries from late 2023 to the present. Particularly notable was Minister of Foreign Affairs Choe Son-Hui's visit to Moscow in January 2024, where her meeting with President Vladimir Putin confirmed plans for Putin's prospective visit to Pyongyang, likely after the March Russian presidential election.

The international media closely monitors the rapid tightening of their relations, particularly military cooperation prospects. Western countries, including the United States and South Korea, suspect Russia may receive military supplies from North Korea amid Ukraine War-related ammunition shortages, potentially exchanging them for missile and nuclear-powered submarine technology. Despite denials from Russia and North Korea, evidence suggests otherwise.

Questions linger regarding Russia's alleged transfer of satellite technology to North Korea, evidenced by successful satellite launches post-summit. Regardless of the scale of military cooperation, it violates UN Security Council sanctions, obliging Russia to comply. Economic cooperation faces similar challenges. However, Russia increasingly supports North Korea by illegally providing oil and other goods, exploiting its UN Security Council Permanent Member status to suspend sanctions monitoring. Russia expands its support for North Korea while sidestepping or neutralizing sanctions.

Some view the Russia-North Korea closeness as an exchange of North Korean ammunition for Russian military technology. However, doubts persist regarding Russia's willingness to share advanced military capabilities. Russia is more likely to provide second-tier military technology, potentially declining post-Ukraine War. Present ties are perceived as short-term tactical cooperation, with potential for strategic collaboration in the medium to long term.

Yonhap News

Russia's foreign policy has sharply shifted towards anti-American and anti-Western sentiments since the Ukraine War. This shift prompts Russian support for North Korea against US-led pressure, fostering cooperation based on shared worldviews and interests, potentially evolving into an anti-American alliance.

During the 75th anniversary of the economic and cultural cooperation agreement signing between Russia and North Korea on March 14, Andrey Rudenko, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, highlighted the unprecedented level of traditional fraternal friendship and comprehensive cooperation between the two nations. He stressed their shared evaluations of the current international situation and approaches to most international and regional issues. Russia and North Korea both allege that the United States is responsible for issues ranging from the Ukraine War to the Korean Peninsula security crisis. Russia's economic cooperation and assistance can help maintain stability in the Kim Jong-un regime by positioning North Korea as a geopolitical buffer zone.

President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to North Korea will serve as a litmus test for the strength of their relations. It's an opportunity to gauge whether Russia perceives North Korea merely as a tactical ally or as a strategic partner. With recent heightened diplomatic exchanges between Russia and North Korea, the potential coordination of Putin's visit with his trip to China in June carries significant implications. For Putin, whose vision includes challenging the dominant US-led global order, aligning visits to China and North Korea could symbolize an anti-American coalition.

Concerns about a potential China-North Korea-Russia relationship against the United States loom large in our government's considerations. While China and Russia have forged a quasi-military partnership against the US-dominated international order, their strategies diverge. Even in their views on North Korea, differences between China and Russia emerge subtly. China, open to negotiations with the US, may find Russia and North Korea's aggressive stance burdensome. Thus, Putin's visit to North Korea becomes pivotal in assessing North Korea's positioning between China and Russia.

Despite the uncertain trajectory of the Ukraine War, the deepening ties between Russia and North Korea and the tensions between South Korea and Russia are likely to endure. Russia remains steadfast in its resistance to compromise with the US and its allies, seeking to undermine American influence in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Similarly, North Korea's commitment to its nuclear arsenal as a regime safeguard suggests little room for diplomatic shifts. As long as the North Korean threat persists, cooperation among South Korea, the US, and Japan will strengthen, while North Korea exploits containment efforts as justification for prolonging the new Cold War.

In this context, an isolated, confrontational Russia under Putin's leadership provides a blueprint for Kim Jong-un's brinkmanship strategy. South Korea must respond to the peninsula crisis with a nuanced approach, balancing diplomatic and security measures. It requires a sober evaluation of the situation, free from emotional sway, to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape effectively.