Surge in Refined Oil Exports and Strengthening North Korea-China Ties:
Maximizing Mutual Interests Amid Trump’s Return and Russia-Ukraine Talks
Kim Dong-su
Former North Korean Diplomat
Last month, China’s refined oil exports to North Korea surged, alongside other signs of improving bilateral ties, drawing attention. This suggests North Korea is seeking diplomatic balance while strengthening its cooperation with Russia. At the same time, China appears intent on reaffirming its influence on the Korean Peninsula amid shifting global dynamics.
According to a March 13 report by Radio Free Asia (RFA), China informed the UN Security Council’s North Korea Sanctions Committee that it had exported 131,521 barrels of refined oil to North Korea between September and November last year.
From January to November 2023, China supplied North Korea with a total of 280,928 barrels of refined oil, surpassing the 256,861 barrels exported over the entire previous year.
Refined oil shipments from September to November last year surged compared to the same periods in 2023 (86,459 barrels) and 2022 (39,221 barrels). The increase was even more dramatic compared to early 2024—4,884 barrels in January, 2,988 in February, and 7,064 in March.
With North Korea facing economic hardship and energy shortages, refined oil supplies are crucial. The rise in exports signals a revival of North Korea-China economic cooperation.
The strengthening ties between North Korea and China go beyond oil exports. Various other developments indicate improving relations.
Journalists from People’s Daily and CCTV have returned to Pyongyang for the first time in five years. This suggests a resumption of cultural and human exchanges and signals North Korea’s renewed acceptance of Chinese media.
Excavation work on the North Korean side of the New Yalu River Bridge, linking Sinuiju and Dandong, has sparked speculation that Pyongyang is preparing customs facilities for resuming border trade.
Diplomatic exchanges have resumed, with North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Pak Myong-ho meeting China’s Ambassador Wang Yajun. Their first official meeting in over a year may have been a step toward deeper diplomatic coordination.
In 2023, North Korea strengthened ties with Russia while keeping some distance from China. However, its recent efforts to rebuild relations with Beijing suggest a strategic move to balance its alliances.
As North Korea expanded military cooperation with Russia last year, even sending troops, China reportedly showed discomfort.
Despite declaring 2023 the "Year of Friendship" to mark 75 years of diplomatic ties with China, North Korea held no significant celebrations. It also gave only brief coverage to Xi Jinping’s New Year’s greeting while prominently featuring Vladimir Putin’s, highlighting its pro-Russia stance.
With the Russia-Ukraine war entering peace negotiations, North Korea may be reassessing its strategy. It remains heavily dependent on China economically, and if Russia’s isolation eases, Pyongyang could receive less support from Moscow. This likely explains its recent efforts to restore ties with China.
China also has reasons to strengthen ties with North Korea. As the U.S. and Russia grow closer through peace talks, China may seek to reinforce its influence in East Asia by deepening its relationship with Pyongyang.
If U.S.-North Korea relations improve, China will need to maintain its leverage over Pyongyang. Strengthening ties could help Beijing solidify its connection with Russia while using North Korea as a strategic buffer.
It is too soon to say North Korea-China relations have fully recovered, but several signs such as increased oil exports, potential border trade resumption, and renewed diplomatic exchanges, suggest they are drawing closer.
North Korea is motivated by economic necessity, while China sees growing geopolitical value in strengthening ties amid shifting global dynamics.
The future of North Korea-China relations will likely depend on U.S.-North Korea diplomacy and the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war. However, based on current trends, their improving ties are clear and will significantly impact Northeast Asia’s geopolitical landscape.