Kim Jong-un's Calculations in the Face of the Two Ongoing Wars

Kwak Gil-sup

President of One Korea Center and Adjunct Professor at Kookmin University

North Korea has grappled with severe economic challenges and diplomatic isolation since 2016. These difficulties have arisen due to comprehensive international sanctions that extended from the military sector into the civilian domain. They were imposed because of North Korea's pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and the distorted allocation of resources to bolster the Kim family's cult of personality. In this complex landscape, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts raise important questions about their significance for North Korea.

The Impact of Two Ongoing Wars on North Korea

In the wake of the failed 2019 DPRK-USA Hanoi Summit in February 2019, North Korea adopted a strategy aimed at achieving greater independence. Diplomatically, it also invested efforts in strengthening its trilateral alliance with China and Russia.

Unexpectedly, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 presented an unexpected opportunity for North Korea. Seizing this moment, North Korea expressed solidarity with the internationally isolated Russia, affirming its commitment to "stand with the Russian army in the same trench." These actions were conveyed by Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s younger sister, on January 27, 2023. This move was undertaken to safeguard North Korea's military, diplomatic, and economic interests.

Russia's veto power as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council has provided significant support for North Korea. This is evident in the UN's inability to pass additional sanctions resolutions against North Korea since the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2397 in December 2017. This resolution followed North Korea's launch of the intercontinental ballistic missile 'Hwasong-15' in November 2017. Kim Jong-un even emphasized Russia as North Korea's top foreign policy priority during his September meeting with Vladimir Putin. These gestures suggest that the strengthening of North Korea-Russia ties may pave the way for a "new path." This path could potentially involve a new Cold War dynamic among the United States, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and North Korea, solidifying an anti-U.S. coalition.

North Korea's economic situation has also posed significant challenges. The country has grappled with continuous economic contraction, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to severe food shortages and internal turmoil.

According to South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS), during a briefing to the Intelligence Committee of the National Assembly on September 17, "corn prices in North Korea have risen by about 60% compared to the first quarter of last year, and rice prices have increased by nearly 30%." These increases indicate a severe deterioration in the food situation. Additionally, the occurrence of deaths from starvation has risen significantly, violent crimes are three times higher than in previous years, and large-scale crimes, such as the use of improvised explosive devices by individuals, have also surged.

In this context, North Korea's commencement of conventional weapons exports to Russia in early August could offer a potential source of income. This income might contribute to financing its nuclear development program and support Kim Jong-un's personal funds. Furthermore, it may provide some relief in terms of securing essential goods like food and energy. It's worth noting that while Putin mentioned advanced scientific and technological aspects, Russia is likely to control the speed and scope of technology transfer, especially for technologies requiring high levels of security.

Regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, it's noteworthy that approximately 10% of Hamas' weaponry is believed to have originated from North Korea. South Korea's NIS has also disclosed indications that Kim Jong-un has instructed exploring comprehensive support for Palestine. Considering North Korea's historical involvement as a major weapons exporter to the Middle East, there is potential for a resurgence in arms exports to countries like Hamas, as well as Iran and other nations opposing the U.S. and Israel, fostering military cooperation.

What Could Be Kim Jong-un's Stance?

It is expected that North Korea will continue to focus on enhancing its nuclear and missile capabilities while grappling with economic challenges. With a particular emphasis on arms exports to Russia and the Middle East, the country is likely to improve its economic situation while advancing military modernization under the 5-year plan for economic and defense development (project from 2021-2025). These efforts may include launching reconnaissance satellites and conducting a seventh nuclear test to enhance both the qualitative and quantitative aspects of its nuclear capabilities.

Furthermore, North Korea is anticipated to prioritize solidifying the new Cold War paradigm and forming international anti-American alliances. North Korea must safeguard its nuclear development, while China, although engaged in strategic maneuvering in its rivalry with the United States, remains fundamentally anti-American. Russia is actively involved in a critical conflict with Ukraine, with the support of the United States and the EU. Consequently, Kim Jong-un's course of action is evident. He will seek to strengthen cooperation with China and Russia in military, diplomatic, and economic domains. There is also a possibility that North Korea may contemplate creating a third front on the Korean Peninsula to test and challenge the United States. The recent large-scale anti-American propaganda campaigns led by high-ranking officials, including Choi Sun-hee, organizations, and groups, can be understood within this context.

Lastly, there is a strategy to undermine the Yoon Suk-yeol government in South Korea and incite national division. Kim Jong-un completely ignored the Moon Jae-in government since the failure of the Hanoi summit and has launched harsh criticisms of the current government. This even includes statements such as ‘I hate that person, Yoon,’ as stated by Kim Yo-jong on August 19, 2022, and labeling them "America's lackey" on October 27, 2023, in Pyongyang Publishing. The recent adoption of the official name "Republic of Korea" instead of "South Korea" is a sophisticated psychological warfare tactic meant to convey the message that North Korea does not view itself as part of the same Korea and is willing to use nuclear weapons without hesitation. Even if North Korea's foreign policy undergoes changes, Kim Jong-un is likely to adhere to a strategy of ignoring the Yoon Suk-yeol government and attempting to divide South Korean society.

Continuing a Strong and Direct Approach for the Foreseeable Future

In conclusion, the ongoing two wars will continue to provide Kim Jong-un with momentum to sustain illegal nuclear development, escape diplomatic isolation, and gain economic leverage. However, in the long term, there is a significant challenge of enduring enhanced international condemnation and sanctions. Nevertheless, for the time being, it is noteworthy that North Korea will benefit from the formation of an anti-American alliance and the advantages it brings.

Therefore, in the future, Kim Jong-un is likely to maintain the current strategy of a strong and direct approach, based on nuclear development and independence, while giving priority to cooperation with China and Russia to gain leverage. If North Korea were to consider a policy change, it might occur timing-wise after the potential reemergence of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, and it could involve a return to talks aimed at denuclearization, rather than disarmament.

Consequently, South Korea and the international community must prevent Kim Jong-un's miscalculations and continue to work together rigorously and intensively to counter illegal weapons development and arms smuggling.